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29 September 2023 14:00-15:30 CEST

Ecological tipping points and resilience: when it may occur and when not

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a webinar on "Ecological tipping points and resilience" as part of a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping points, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Different concepts are discussed for ecological systems change. We will investigate regime shifts and resilience loss and if thresholds exists for biodiversity change.

Presentations

Moderated by Awaz Mohamed (University of Hamburg)

The event recording is provided below.

Back to series overview.

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Speakers

Juan Rocha
Stockholm Resilience Centre

Juan C. Rocha is a research scientist at the Stockholm Resilience Centre where he co-leads the theme on complex systems. His research questions are oriented to understanding critical transitions: from regime shifts in ecological systems, to collective action in society. Currently he focuses on the idea of cascading effects: how a critical transition in an ecosystem in the world can impact the likelihood of other ecosystems tipping over.

Juan is interested in methods for identifying resilience surrogates –good observables that can tell you how resilient a system is– as well as misperception of feedbacks and their consequences. He finds inspiration in complex systems science, the use of mathematical models, networks and other computational methods to understand social and ecological complexity.

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Prof. Helmut Hillebrand
Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg

Professor for Plankton Ecology at the Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment University of Oldenburg. He is very interested in the mechanisms that constrain and alter biodiversity in a variety of ecosystems. He likes to think about the complex nature of biodiversity change and ecological stability. 

Trained as an experimental ecologist, he has focused more on research syntheses and data analyses in recent years. Since 2017 he is founding director of the Helmholtz-Institute for Functional Marine Biodiversity at the University of Oldenburg [HIFMB], a collaboration between the University and the Alfred-Wegener-Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research. HIFMB focuses on interdisciplinary projects on marine biodiversity and conservation.

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All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

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Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Earth Commission

The Earth Commission is a major scientific assessment, hosted by Future Earth, to define a safe and just corridor for people and planet. The Commission will inform the creation of science-based targets, the “1.5-degree equivalents”, to help maintain and protect critical global commons – our shared climate, land, biodiversity, freshwater, atmosphere and oceans. The Earth Commission is an international team of leading natural and social scientists and five working groups of additional experts. It forms the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.

World Climate Research Programme

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) leads the way in addressing frontier scientific questions related to the coupled climate system — questions that are too large and too complex to be tackled by a single nation, agency or scientific discipline. Through international science coordination and partnerships, WCRP contributes to advancing our understanding of the multi-scale dynamic interactions between natural and social systems that affect climate.